The EU-US Trade Deal: What’s In It for Space?

European vulnerability revealed by outsourcing of strategic sectors

On July 25, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a long-awaited trade agreement, touted by the White House as a milestone that “positions the United States as the world’s preeminent destination for investment, innovation, and advanced manufacturing.”

For the European Union, however, the deal reads more like a concession than a win. Beyond the political spin, the agreement obliges the EU to accept flat tariffs on exports, commit to vast purchases of U.S. energy, and pledge billions toward U.S. technologies, all of which raise serious questions about the Union’s ambitions for technological sovereignty.

Let’s take a closer look at what the deal contains -and what it risks- for Europe’s space ambitions.

Tariffs, Promises, and Purchases: What’s at Stake?

At its core, the trade deal imposes a 15% flat tariff on 70% of EU exports to the U.S., and maintains a steep 50% tariff on core industrial metals like steel, aluminum, and copper. While these metals may not be exclusive to the space sector, they are indispensable for the large-scale structural components of rockets, satellites, and launch infrastructure. The EU’s official communication suggests tariff quotas will be established “at historic levels,” but the White House contradicts this, stating tariffs remain unchanged. The discrepancy leaves European manufacturers in limbo.

Meanwhile, the aircraft industry escapes largely unscathed. Commercial jet production and deliveries will proceed tariff-free, a mutual nod to the transatlantic interdependence of aerospace giants like Airbus and Boeing. Beyond aviation, however, the deal becomes murkier and more concerning for Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Military Hardware and Strategic Ambiguity

One of the most opaque sections of the agreement relates to military procurement. The White House fact sheet claims the EU has agreed to the purchase of U.S. military equipment. Yet the European Commission’s own communications are notably silent on this point. No official figures were released, and no concrete commitments have been acknowledged by Brussels.

Nonetheless, Europe’s dependency on U.S. defense hardware is well documented. A 2023 report on EU competitiveness by Mario Draghi revealed that 78% of the €75 billion spent by EU countries on defense between June 2022 and June 2023 went outside the bloc, with 63% flowing directly to the U.S.

Whether or not the trade deal formalizes this military reliance, it underscores a broader vulnerability: the continued outsourcing of strategic sectors, including those increasingly entangled with space and defense.

$750 Billion in U.S. Energy—and €40 Billion in AI Chips

Among the most significant concessions is the EU’s commitment to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy over three years—roughly $250 billion annually. For context, the EU imported €375.9 billion ($442 billion) worth of petroleum, LNG, and gas in 2024. This new deal commits Europe to importing over half of that figure from the U.S. alone, tilting the transatlantic energy relationship in Washington’s favor.

To be clear, this does not necessarily establish a new dependency—it merely reflects the fact that Europe is already not autonomous in its energy provisioning. At this point, it is less a question of “if” Europe is dependent, and more a matter of whom it chooses to depend on.

Even more problematic for the space sector, however, is the EU’s promise to purchase €40 billion worth of U.S.-made AI chips.

Space has historically faced constraints in AI deployment due to radiation, bandwidth, and power limitations. But that’s changing fast. Emerging AI chips allow satellites to perform real-time image analysis, adaptive navigation, and task prioritization without needing to downlink raw data -a massive efficiency leap. AI chips are no longer peripheral to space infrastructure; they are becoming its neural spine.

And yet, with this deal, the EU agrees to become a customer—not a producer—of these vital technologies (Europe currently does not produce AI-chips on large scale). Worse, it does so while accepting a 15% export tariff on European-made semiconductors heading to the U.S. In effect, the EU is buying into dependency while simultaneously limiting its own export competitiveness.

Semiconductor Tariffs: Undermining Strategic Autonomy?

The agreement sets a 15% tariff ceiling on semiconductors exported from the EU to the U.S., including those covered under Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act, which regulates goods deemed critical to national security. While this may appear as a harmonizing measure, it arguably protects the U.S. semiconductor market more than it levels the playing field.

This is particularly paradoxical given the EU's own ambitions laid out in the European Chips Act, which aims to double Europe’s share of global semiconductor production from 10% to 20% and build a more sovereign tech ecosystem. The deal throws a wrench into that vision, placing European sovereignty and space-sector resilience profoundly dependent on the U.S. supply chains.

A One-Sided Investment Picture?

The final figures reinforce the asymmetry: the EU pledges $600 billion in corporate investment into the U.S., while committing to energy, AI chip, and potentially military procurement. While these may generate diplomatic goodwill, they erode the EU’s long-term strategic position—particularly in sectors like energy security and aerospace technology, where autonomy has been a guiding principle.

The cost of stability

The EU-US trade deal may offer stability in transatlantic relations, but it does so at the cost of Europe’s long-term technological and strategic autonomy.

These reforms (investment in nuclear energy, chip sovereignty, and autonomous defense capabilities) should have begun twenty or thirty years ago. In their absence, Europe is left navigating alliances rather than building alternatives.

For the space sector, the implications are severe: increased dependence on U.S. chips, exposure to high metal tariffs, and ambiguous defense procurement promises. In a geopolitical landscape increasingly defined by technological self-reliance, the EU has agreed to terms that weaken its own footing. In choosing short-term diplomatic wins over long-term sovereignty, the EU may have signed a deal that limits its ability to compete in space—precisely when the global space race is accelerating.