Risks and wins from the latest CM25

by Charles Galland

“Buten un binnen, wagen un winnen”, literally “outside and in, risk it and win,” was historically a call for Bremen’s merchants to take calculated risks both at home and abroad to secure prosperity. The Bremen motto also resonates with the decisions taken at CM25.

The largest financial commitment in ESA’s history (22.3B€) reflects Europe’s willingness to assume responsibility and strategic risk: strengthening technological leadership and resilience internally, while projecting capability and credibility externally.

The package proposed by ESA was ambitious and carried significant risk, but it largely paid off, securing strong commitments from Member States. The only exception was the exploration programme, which some, including Director Daniel Neuenschwander, acknowledged may have been overly ambitious given the circumstances.

At a time described by ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher as a “perfect storm” for Europe, marked by heightened security threats and mounting economic pressures, Member States’ commitments underscore a broader reality: in today’s geopolitical and economic context, space is no longer merely a driver of scientific progress. It has become a pillar of sovereignty, innovation, and economic strength.

Notably, the rise in contributions from European emerging space countries (e.g., +277% for Poland, + 160% for Lithuania, +134% for Hungary, +132% for Estonia, +130% for Slovenia, +100% for Latvia) illustrates how the benefits of space increasingly extend across all of Europe - an evolution that Eurospace is proud to support through its European Space Ecosystems Integration Summits.

The CM25 offers a unique opportunity for the European space industry

Today, 70% of industry’s turnover depend on the European institutional demand, with ESA procurement alone representing more than one third (44%) of industry revenues. This means that ESA procurement policy has a very strong influence on the industry’s financial sustainability and on its ability to invest in the future, to finance R&D or to retain talents. Industry profitability has been a concern for several years (see here), and, at the same time, the size of the accessible demand for European space systems is increasingly shrinking compared to that of other major space powers.

In this regard, the success of ESA CM25 offers a valuable opportunity to begin acting more collectively, with greater determination, and greater ambition. The European space industry is growing, diversifying, and actively preparing to absorb increased funding and workload, with the agility to adapt rapidly to institutional and commercial market demands. The new agreed programmes are therefore essential in keeping all segments of the industry sufficiently tasked to maintain momentum and fully realise its potential: ensuring that public authorities have unrestricted and sovereign access to the space-based infrastructure needed to implement policies and deliver essential services.

By providing a critical mass of activities, ESA programmes will be key in fostering the robustness of the European space industry and supporting its further industrialisation, scalability, and ability to deliver at pace and volume. In the spirit of Bremen’s motto, the European space industry is ready to take calculated risks and transform these investments into capabilities that strengthen sovereignty, innovation and European leadership. Even in the midst of the “perfect storm” facing Europe, the sector has the agility, expertise, and determination to turn ambition into results. As we often hear, ESA delivers, but so does - and will - its domestic industry.

Since 2018, Charles Galland has served as Policy Director at Eurospace, representing the European space industry at the heart of EU and ESA decision-making. He specialises in shaping space policy and fostering dialogue between institutions and industry.